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Author: Mosope Arubayi

Africa in the midst of a Trump-Biden faceoff

By November 3, the United States of America (USA) will be making a choice between a Trump or Biden presidency. Increased uncertainty on the outcome of the elections drove jitters on major US equity indexes last week, as the markets priced in the possibility of an election contest given the increased adoption of mail-voting as…
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Nigeria: Virus, Protests, and the Economy

As the media evidence of the murder of a young man got into public space, nation-wide protests erupted, clamouring for the end to police brutality especially by a section of the police force, known as the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). The protests became stronger by the day, as online movements metamorphosed into physical demonstrations, blockage…
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Budget 2021 – An expansionary wave

The COVID-19 pandemic that has persisted through the year, has raised the need to protect people, stabilize demand and stimulate recovery. The provision of emergency support has brought additional expenditure obligations, including emergency healthcare services, stimulus packages, payroll supports and rise in unemployment benefits. While advanced economies had automatic stabilizers to cushion the effect of…
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Pandemic debt: On the brink of a debt crisis

As the world copes with the health implications of COVID-19, the turnout of events has resulted into severe implications for the fiscal positions of various emerging and frontier economies. While dollar inflows from commodity exports and remittances have collapsed, the softening of local currencies have raised levels of indebtedness. Thus, emergency financing flows from International…
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Anticipate inflation scorches

The year of the metal rat (i.e. 2020) is clearly not the year for the Nigerian consumer. A cross-current of declining incomes and rising prices implies that there is no robust consumer out there. Lending credence to this fact is the pessimistic response of the Q2’20 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) which was attributed largely to…
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Wielding the axe on interest rates

With the US Federal Reserve Bank poised to allow inflation moderately above 2%, interest rates in the US could remain low for as long as necessary to enable other economic areas in the US economy, such as the labour market, catch up. This decision will determine the price of borrowing and savings deposit rates, not…
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Nigeria: How (un)happy are you?

The use of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic progress has been under fire by welfare economists in recent years as they postulate that GDP figures do not capture the adverse environmental effects of economic processes. Economic progress can be linked to the people’s prosperity and happiness and citizens of countries that…
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Nigeria’s Phillips curve: Dead or alive?

The Phillips curve indicates the trade-off between employment and price stability. Price stability is the primary objective of central banks but this cannot be achieved without pursuing associated objectives such as sustainable economic growth, full employment, stable long-term interest rates and stable real exchange rates. The tool is based on the ideology that, ceteris paribus, an…
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Viral volatility: How health uncertainty is impacting SSA market sentiment.

The world is reeling under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Its devastating damage to humans, its influence over our daily interactions, and its economic consequences are all too clear. Financial and medical crises could go hand in hand as a rise in unemployment and reduced access to healthcare could lead to adverse health outcomes.…
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Africa’s future is plurilateral

There’s been a paradigm shift in the global world economic order. The third wave of globalization that began in the 1970s is slowly winding down, and the coronavirus pandemic could just be the final nail on the coffin. Severe pandemics can have extremely important and potentially long-lasting lopsided economic consequences. As the world emerges from…
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