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Author: Mosope Arubayi

Nigeria: Fortifying financial stability oversight

Weak banks are a worldwide phenomenon. The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to weakening credit conditions and certain asset valuations in the financial system. More often than not, excessive risk exposures, excessive leverage, lack of profitability, liquidity concerns, poor asset quality, capital erosion, and reputation problems stem from weaknesses in corporate governance, erroneous risk-reward compensation policies,…
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Crystalballing Africa

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis protracts, the odds of a reinforced global economic recovery have been further setback. Intensified global supply-demand imbalances have prompted a shift in global monetary policy stance, as inflationary pressures continue to tick higher. Unfortunately, the tighter monetary stance poses downside risks to economic growth prospects as credit conditions tighten both globally…
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Nigeria: Voraciously feeding the beast

With crude oil still trading at over $100/bbl, there is no gainsaying that the Nigerian government is clearly in a lavish mood. This probably explains why the government reneged on its commitment to put a stop to PMS subsidy and is poised to raise ₦4trn to fund petrol subsidies in 2022. Policy moves like this…
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Nigeria: Caught in a web

Oil prices are on a tear, along with everything else in this inflationary period. Players in the global oil market are spooked by supply-related constraints, and their continued panic has seen oil prices climb by no less than 20% YTD. While Western oil companies are drilling fewer wells post-pandemic – partly due to pressure from…
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Climate change: Bracing for impact in Africa

Globally, climatic shocks have become more frequent and intense. Many people still think of climate change as a future phenomenon, probably because climate change-related projections are tied to future dates: 2030, 2050, or 2100, for instance. But we are, unfortunately, experiencing climate change, and have done so for some time now. Over the past century,…
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Africa: A future of bold economic policies

14th February was not just about chocolates and roses; it was also the second anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic brought atypical disruptions to Africa—crunching incomes, magnifying poverty and food insecurity, and leading the region into its first recession in 25 years. Faced with the shock of unprecedented proportions, Africa has…
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Africa: Coups breed coups

A new year, another coup in Africa, especially West Africa that has seen no less than five military takeovers in the past year. Mali, Tunisia, Guinea, Sudan, and now Burkina Faso have been recent coup hotbeds amid widespread public discontent and disillusionment. Africa saw more than 10 general elections in 2021, and the majority returned…
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And the plot glooms…

2022 is the year many had projected that the world economy will fully recover from the pandemic. Not until Omicron struck, dampening the upbeat recovery mood. With the worst of the pandemic behind us and the risk of multiple waves and mutants ahead, economic expectations are being dimmed, the most recent being the International monetary…
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Beware of the known; and unknown

As the economic consequences of the pandemic continues to dissipate and the global recovery progresses further, economic policymakers are now faced with the herculean task of taming inflation amid the fragile global recovery. With the risk of a rates lift off looming larger in 2022, a number of themes are expected to dominate the macroeconomy.…
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Merkel out; Scholz in

Angela Merkel’s sixteen-year hold of Europe’s largest economy ended earlier this month, as she handed over the helm of Germany’s affairs to Olaf Scholz, her four-year finance minister, vice-chancellor, and an ardent social democrat. Scholz, who narrowly edged out other candidates in the race to fill Merkel’s huge shoes in the September elections, has taken…
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