Mosope Arubayi

Mosope Arubayi

Global Economist
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The GDP numbers reflect a further drop in the country's GDP per capita, which saw a sharp drop (-4.4%) similarto the decline recorded during the 2016 recession. While the population continues to creep higher, the slowpace of technology adoption continues to limit efficiency - amid other pre-existing structural impediments -and weighs on individuals' productivity levels and by extension, the country's overall productivity. Being amongthe countries with the highest degrees of income inequality in the world (SWIID) is suggestive of the fact thatNigeria has a lot of scope to accelerate overall productivity by committing to investing in activities that have ahigh productivity multiplier, such as infrastructure and research & development (R&D).

Source: Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics

Ghana's retail inflation eased to 9.9% y/y in January 2021, in the absence of festivities-drivendemand pressures. However, it is at the upper bound of the Bank of Ghana's 6%-10% inflationtarget. Inflation moderated on softer food prices, compared to a year ago, as food inflation eased to12.8% y/y from 14.1% y/y in December'20 while non-food inflation stayed put at 7.7% y/y. The moderation in consumer inflation signifies an improvement in the purchasing power of thecedi and a slight reprieve in consumer cost pressures. The real value of the cedi and cedi-denominated assets have also been enhanced with the fall in inflation.

Source: Ghana Statistical Service

CBN's OMO sales volume was down by over 50% y/y in 2020 as the bank looked to manage its borrowing cost, amid its ongoing segment restriction.

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Multi-digit inflation bites hard in 23 countries around the world, led by Venezuela with the last reading of 1813.1% y/y (Sep'20). While inflation in Venezuela has been decelerating aggressively since 2019, it has been on a steady rise in Sudan, accelerating much strongly in 2020 to 212.3% y/y (Sep'20).

Source: Trading Economics

In Nigeria, stickier export prices compared to import prices reflect domestic price pressures that feed into the export price of commodities. Expensive power sources, costly logistics, etc are price pressures that inflate export prices.

Source: Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics

Volatility in Nigeria's parallel market intensified on a widening of the market's foreign currency gap, putting upward pressure on the Naira exchange rate.

Source: AbokiFX

Nigeria's bourse surpasses its record highs of the 2010s, with a return of 50% in FY'20.

Source: Bloomberg

How the exchange rate gaps in Nigeria and Kenya's FX markets compared to the IMF benchmark in 2020

Source: Bloomberg

IMF Oct'20 GDP growth forecasts: Libya to record the strongest growth comeback in FY'21, on continued oil price recovery and progressive peace deal negotiations.

Source: IMF Oct'20 World Economic Outlook

Pandemic-related spending triggers an uptick in Nigeria's debt accumulation but the rate remains below the 2010's average, as of 9M'20

Source: Nigeria's Debt Management Office

In Nigeria, stickier export prices compared to import prices reflect domestic price pressures that feed into the export price of commodities. Expensive power sources, costly logistics, etc are price pressures that inflate export prices.