Venezuela’s latest political rupture is not just another chapter in a long crisis. It is a regime risk shock with global macroeconomic consequences. The labels—coup, externally backed regime change, or failed transition—matters less than what it reveals: the fragility of energy supply, geopolitics, and the pricing of emerging-market risk in a fragmented world. At its…
Read more
Africa’s economic outlook is often summed up by a single number: growth rate. Forecasts for 2026 are in the low-to-mid 4 percent range (AfDB, Nov 2025), suggesting resilience but not transformation. However, interpretations of Africa’s present condition and future trajectory differ greatly depending on the economic lens applied. Economic schools of thought shape how policymakers…
Read more
For decades, Nigeria’s monetary policy operated in a hybrid space—part rules, part discretion—constrained by fiscal dominance, exchange-rate pressures, and deep structural inflation drivers. Monetary decisions were often shaped as much by administrative controls, directed credit, and quasi-fiscal objectives as by price stability. That framework is now changing. In recent years, the Central Bank of Nigeria…
Read more
When central banks lower policy rates or governments deploy countercyclical fiscal stimulus, the standard transmission narrative is well known: the cost of capital declines, intertemporal substitution favors present consumption, risk appetite increases, private investment accelerates, and aggregate demand recovers. Monetary easing should relax financial conditions and spur balance-sheet expansion. Fiscal transfers and spending should smooth…
Read more
Why GDP, inflation, and FX numbers increasingly reflect narrative, not measurement Global markets depend on economic indicators that purport to be precise but often fall short. GDP growth expressed to the decimal, inflation to the basis point, and FX reserves to the dollar all offer a sense of certainty underpinning pricing and forecasting. Yet this…
Read more
Christmas is no longer just a religious festival; over the years, it has become more of a celebratory holiday for spreading love and cheer. It is the most awaited time of the year, not just because you get to spend quality time with your loved ones or exchange gifts with them but also because businesses…
Read more
In practical terms, President Kagame is poised to remain President for life as Rwandans continue to vote in favour of peace and development over justice and democracy. With a c.99% vote share in the 2024 presidential elections, Paul Kagame – the incumbent Rwandan President – crushed election victory and will be extending his nearly a…
Read more
The economy is a snapshot of people’s activities — i.e. the allocation of resources including money and time. When the economic story becomes too noisy to interpret, and too much bad air conquers the circulating narrative, it can lead people to expect the worst. What people expect can soon end up happening, and right now…
Read more
Weak banks are a worldwide phenomenon. The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to weakening credit conditions and certain asset valuations in the financial system. More often than not, excessive risk exposures, excessive leverage, lack of profitability, liquidity concerns, poor asset quality, capital erosion, and reputation problems stem from weaknesses in corporate governance, erroneous risk-reward compensation policies,…
Read more
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis protracts, the odds of a reinforced global economic recovery have been further setback. Intensified global supply-demand imbalances have prompted a shift in global monetary policy stance, as inflationary pressures continue to tick higher. Unfortunately, the tighter monetary stance poses downside risks to economic growth prospects as credit conditions tighten both globally…
Read more
