Imagine preparing a pot of jollof rice in Lagos in 2016 versus 2026. The recipe has not changed. Rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions, oil, seasoning, and possibly chicken. But the cost of the pot has multiplied. That is Nigeria’s inflation story. Economists measure inflation using indices and models. Nigerians experience it through food. And no food…
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Emerging markets are pivoting. After leading the world into aggressive tightening, they are now leading the turn toward easier money. Policy rates that once defended currencies and crushed inflation are beginning to fall — not because risks have vanished, but because the balance of risk has shifted. The question is no longer whether inflation can…
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In 2016, Nigeria was in recession. In 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria will rank among the largest contributors to global real GDP growth. This shift is not cyclical. It is structural. And it says as much about the changing architecture of the global economy as it does about Nigeria itself. Importantly,…
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Prudence is designed to make financial systems safer. Higher capital buffers, stricter underwriting, stronger compliance, and clearer rules all serve one aim: reduce the chance that shocks become crises. Prudence has a shadow cost: when imposed abruptly, uniformly, or without regard to transmission, it can shrink the economy it intends to protect. Nigeria’s financial reset…
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Nigeria’s financial system is changing. It faces a major regulatory reset across banking, capital markets, fintech, FX intermediation, and cash usage. The trend is clear: higher capital, tighter compliance, clearer rules, and more market-based pricing, especially in foreign exchange. Officially, the goal is stability. In reality, it is during the adjustment phase that risk is…
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Venezuela’s latest political rupture is not just another chapter in a long crisis. It is a regime risk shock with global macroeconomic consequences. The labels—coup, externally backed regime change, or failed transition—matters less than what it reveals: the fragility of energy supply, geopolitics, and the pricing of emerging-market risk in a fragmented world. At its…
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Africa’s economic outlook is often summed up by a single number: growth rate. Forecasts for 2026 are in the low-to-mid 4 percent range (AfDB, Nov 2025), suggesting resilience but not transformation. However, interpretations of Africa’s present condition and future trajectory differ greatly depending on the economic lens applied. Economic schools of thought shape how policymakers…
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For decades, Nigeria’s monetary policy operated in a hybrid space—part rules, part discretion—constrained by fiscal dominance, exchange-rate pressures, and deep structural inflation drivers. Monetary decisions were often shaped as much by administrative controls, directed credit, and quasi-fiscal objectives as by price stability. That framework is now changing. In recent years, the Central Bank of Nigeria…
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When central banks lower policy rates or governments deploy countercyclical fiscal stimulus, the standard transmission narrative is well known: the cost of capital declines, intertemporal substitution favors present consumption, risk appetite increases, private investment accelerates, and aggregate demand recovers. Monetary easing should relax financial conditions and spur balance-sheet expansion. Fiscal transfers and spending should smooth…
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Why GDP, inflation, and FX numbers increasingly reflect narrative, not measurement Global markets depend on economic indicators that purport to be precise but often fall short. GDP growth expressed to the decimal, inflation to the basis point, and FX reserves to the dollar all offer a sense of certainty underpinning pricing and forecasting. Yet this…
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