Rwanda 2024 Polls: No alarms, and no surprises

In practical terms, President Kagame is poised to remain President for life as Rwandans continue to vote in favour of peace and development over justice and democracy. With a c.99% vote share in the 2024 presidential elections, Paul Kagame – the incumbent Rwandan President – crushed election victory and will be extending his nearly a quarter-of-a-century authoritarian rule. Another Kagame tenure will come with its peculiarities that continue to draw mixed reactions both home and abroad.

A pro forma election

The outcome of the election comes as no surprise as each time Kagame has sought re-election – in 2003, 2010, and 2017 – he has won more than 90% of the vote. Since becoming President in 2000 after being elected by the parliament, the Eastern African President has run technically unopposed in every single election, as his opposition always poll dismally.

There was a big gap between the presidential candidates in terms of popularity, ideology, means, and capacity. The incumbent faced off against a weak two-party opposition with little support and weak campaign structures, while other popular candidates were disqualified by the Rwanda National Electoral Commission for various reasons – including past criminal convictions. A few other small political parties formed a coalition and endorsed Kagame for another term as the country’s President.

A reconciliation president…

Many Rwandans find Kagame’s strong presidency reassuring, praising his role in steering economic transformation after the genocide. President Paul Kagame has led Rwanda for 30 years since the 1994 genocide. His vision led to impressive economic growth in the decades since the genocide, and his supporters credit his government with reducing poverty and increasing medical insurance coverage, highlighting Kigali’s transformation from a ghost town into a modern city with good roads and stylish buildings hosting hotels, conference centres, and businesses.

Kagame is credited to have united Rwanda beyond ethnicity, providing security to all Rwandans. He stabilized and transformed the East African Nation, expanding household electricity access and reducing corruption. Rwanda also became a hub for sports, culture, and conferences under Kagame’s watch, with the BK Arena in Kigali hosting events like the Basketball Africa League finals. However, his tenure continues to face global scrutiny for accusations of human rights abuses and tensions with neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo. 

…with an iron-grip

Kagame’s disciplinarian nature and strong work ethic continues to draw mixed reactions at home and abroad. Rwanda’s political system under Kagame is largely built on obedience to authorities, with little room for petty corruption, official incompetence, and urban disorder, while organization along ethnic lines is forbidden. He has dismissed cabinet members implicated in corruption and held poor performers accountable. This has made Rwanda one of the least corrupt countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and the easiest to do business in – winning him many supporters.

In the same vein, his firm rule has stifled political dissent by systematically repressing many critics who have either died, disappeared, been arrested, or fled the country. This has ensured he has no real competition at the polls, enabling his winning streak.

Life-time presidency

President Kagame is eligible to continue in office for another decade after a controversial referendum in 2015, which enabled him to bypass the limit of two consecutive seven-year terms and to run for two additional five-year terms. But for the constitutional amendment, he would have had to hang up his boots in 2017. Bypassing the term limits is a move that raised a lot of eyebrows internationally, but he is just one of the many African presidents that are guilty as sin.

Since 2015, a general trend of sidestepping term limits has been observed in many different African nations. According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 30 out of 54 African countries (56%) are operating without functioning limits on an executive’s time in power. Leaders of 14 African countries – including Rwanda – have held onto power for more than two terms after evading term limits, reversing an evolving trend of term limit adherence between 2000–2015.

Bellying up to the bar

Kagame is no newcomer to victory at the polls and has been given another opportunity to roll up his sleeves. While support for his administration remains generally strong from the streets of Ruhengeri to the streets of Butare, a high rate of unemployment and a rising debt profile are topical issues the President must seek to address. 

Although Rwanda was one of the fastest-growing economies on the African continent over the past two decades, its growth has not been inclusive with the unemployment rate printing north of 20% in some quarters. The country’s public debt also increased to 73.5% of GDP in 2023 from 67.5% of GDP in 2022, primarily driven by the 18% y/y depreciation of the Rwandan franc because of its high share of foreign debt (almost 77.0% of the public debt stock).

Kagame’s victory also comes on the back of accusations by the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) of sponsoring a rebel group that is wreaking havoc in the eastern DRC, and the scrapping of the asylum seeker deportation deal by the newly elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom – Keir Starmer.

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