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Diary Of A 3rd World Economist

Global economy: Big on vibes

The economy is a snapshot of people’s activities — i.e. the allocation of resources including money and time. When the economic story becomes too noisy to interpret, and too much bad air conquers the circulating narrative, it can lead people to expect the worst. What people expect can soon end up happening, and right now…
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Africa: Political permutations and economic development

Leadership is crucial to achieving sustainable economic growth as it involves putting in place structures that enable growth and progressive development. Elections are a referendum on the president and his economic legacy and are therefore a key determinant of a country’s social, political, and economic performance. A country’s pace of development relies heavily on the…
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A hungry man…

Economic pressures bring political instability – and economic pressures abound today. Global supply chains are still suffering from frictions related to the pandemic-re-opening, there is war in two of the world’s key food exporters, and sanctions on one of the world’s biggest crude oil exporters. Life could not be any worse for emerging economies that…
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Abenomics: The overlooked third arrow

Japan, having grappled with deflation during the lost decades (the 1990s-2010s), has repeatedly pursued government interventions in the hope of revitalizing its economy. One such strategy was ‘Abenomics’, a shock-and-awe stimulus policy that was the signature in the economic realm of Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister – Shinzo Abe. The term, ‘Abenomics’ is a portmanteau of…
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Nigeria: Fortifying financial stability oversight

Weak banks are a worldwide phenomenon. The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to weakening credit conditions and certain asset valuations in the financial system. More often than not, excessive risk exposures, excessive leverage, lack of profitability, liquidity concerns, poor asset quality, capital erosion, and reputation problems stem from weaknesses in corporate governance, erroneous risk-reward compensation policies,…
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Crystalballing Africa

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis protracts, the odds of a reinforced global economic recovery have been further setback. Intensified global supply-demand imbalances have prompted a shift in global monetary policy stance, as inflationary pressures continue to tick higher. Unfortunately, the tighter monetary stance poses downside risks to economic growth prospects as credit conditions tighten both globally…
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Nigeria: Voraciously feeding the beast

With crude oil still trading at over $100/bbl, there is no gainsaying that the Nigerian government is clearly in a lavish mood. This probably explains why the government reneged on its commitment to put a stop to PMS subsidy and is poised to raise ₦4trn to fund petrol subsidies in 2022. Policy moves like this…
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Nigeria: Caught in a web

Oil prices are on a tear, along with everything else in this inflationary period. Players in the global oil market are spooked by supply-related constraints, and their continued panic has seen oil prices climb by no less than 20% YTD. While Western oil companies are drilling fewer wells post-pandemic – partly due to pressure from…
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Climate change: Bracing for impact in Africa

Globally, climatic shocks have become more frequent and intense. Many people still think of climate change as a future phenomenon, probably because climate change-related projections are tied to future dates: 2030, 2050, or 2100, for instance. But we are, unfortunately, experiencing climate change, and have done so for some time now. Over the past century,…
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Africa: A future of bold economic policies

14th February was not just about chocolates and roses; it was also the second anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic brought atypical disruptions to Africa—crunching incomes, magnifying poverty and food insecurity, and leading the region into its first recession in 25 years. Faced with the shock of unprecedented proportions, Africa has…
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